The end of this battle does not imply the cessation of hostilities in Syria, but will extend it and will involve more countries like the Shiite giant.
The victory of the Syrian Army and its foreign allies in Aleppo marks a milestone in the process of civil war. This advance consolidates government control in three other western cities: Damascus - the capital - Hama and Homs, which in turn allows the president, Bachar el Asad, to dominate the majority of the country's population and natural resources. Although the rebels still have Idlib, southwest Aleppo and near the Turkish border, but the fall of Aleppo dampens attempts at the ethnic break-up of Syria.
The rebels, after occupying Aleppo in June 2012, managed to accelerate their progress so much that they threatened Damascus in early 2013 and it seemed that the fall of El Asad would be a matter of months. It was then that Iran came to support the Syrian regime with tens of thousands of Shiite militiamen from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan along with the Hezbollah Lebanese and the military advisers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (the Pasdaran) and in this way managed to stop the impetus Of the rebels and the war entered a stagnation on many fronts. The radical change in the balance of power came with the intervention of Russian aviation in the summer of 2015 that began to indiscriminately bomb both the ISIS terrorists and the more moderate rebels.
On a regional scale, Aleppo's takeover is Iran's victory over Saudi Arabia. Tehran could even condition the evacuation of eastern Aleppo to the survivors of two Shia villages, Fua and Kefraya, besieged by rebels near Idlib, but at the international level Russia is winning over the Western bloc with the US at its head Who have bet on overthrowing El Asad.
Even so, keeping Asad in power has cost Tehran dearly. According to Staffan De Mistura, UN special envoy for Syria, Iran allocates $ 6 billion a year to the Syrian conflict, while some analysts estimate that this figure could reach $ 20 billion. So far, more than 1,000 Iranians have lost their lives in Syria and among them some generals of the Pasdaran. On the other hand, the unconditional support of the Iranian leaders to El Asad has discredited them before the public opinion of the Sunni world and has cooled more than before the relations between Tehran and the Arabs of the Persian Gulf. Even one of the reasons why Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program after signing the agreement with six world powers last February was to play a more decisive role in the conflicts in Iraq and Syria after lifting the sanctions.
It seems that Tehran does not want to lose Damascus, no matter what, and this attitude is due to a number of factors. Syria has always served Iran as the safest bridge to support groups that sympathize with its policies to pressure Israel and especially Hezbollah. Syria is the springboard that allows Teheran to expand its influence in the Middle East region, but even so, its rigidity can not be explained before alternatives like replacing El Asad with a political actor even with the same tendencies. Qasem Soleimani, head of the Pasdaran elite corps for missions abroad, the Qods Force, explained in 2013: "We are not like Americans. We never left our friends. " These statements show that in supporting El Asad, the Iranians also take into account their psychological effect on the rest of their allies in the region. Following the blocking of 100 Hezbollah bank accounts in Lebanon in June, Hasan Nasrallah, his Secretary-General announced that "these measures have no effect ... since Hezbollah receives all of its funds from Iran."
Analysts point out that the end of the Aleppo battle does not mean the end of the Syrian conflict, but will lengthen it and involve more countries like Iran. According to an optimistic forecast, it gives rise to an asymmetric and dispersed resistance and this process of destabilizing wear will spread the region and expand terrorism in both Syria and the Middle East.
http://sarafinaj.blogspot.com/2016/12/iran-target-shitte-giants-saudi-arabia.html
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